0001-HG7164乘用車總體設(shè)計【CAD圖紙+文檔】

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機電工程學(xué)院 畢業(yè)論文外文資料翻譯 論文題目: HG7164乘用車總體設(shè)計 譯文題目： 現(xiàn)代電動,混合動力和 燃料電池汽車基礎(chǔ),理論和設(shè)計 正文：外文資料譯文 附 件：外文資料原文 指導(dǎo)教師評語： 簽名： 年 月 日 正文：外文資料譯文 文獻出處：《現(xiàn)代電動,混合動力和燃料電池汽車基礎(chǔ),理論和設(shè)計》第一章第一至第四節(jié)，作者：Mehrdad Ehsani教授；Yimin Gao教授；Ali Emadi教授。 環(huán)境影響和現(xiàn)代運輸史 內(nèi)燃發(fā)動機車輛的發(fā)展，特別是汽車，是現(xiàn)代科技最偉大的成就之一。汽車通過滿足人們在日常生活中對不同移動性的要求，對現(xiàn)代社會的發(fā)展做出了巨大的貢獻。汽車行業(yè)的快速發(fā)展，不同于其它行業(yè)，促使人類的進步從原始的安全性發(fā)展到了高度發(fā)達的工業(yè)體。汽車行業(yè)和服務(wù)于該行業(yè)的行業(yè)構(gòu)成了世界經(jīng)濟的支柱，并且占了雇傭勞動人口的最大份額。然而，世界各地大量汽車的使用已經(jīng)造成并將繼續(xù)造成對環(huán)境和人類生活的嚴重問題?？諝馕廴荆蜃兣偷厍蚴唾Y源的快速耗竭是現(xiàn)在最關(guān)心的問題。在最近的幾十年中，對運輸?shù)南嚓P(guān)研究和開發(fā)活動已經(jīng)強調(diào)了高效，清潔和安全運輸發(fā)展的必要。通常情況下，電動汽車（EV），混合動力電動汽車（HEV），和燃料電池汽車已提出在不久的將來取代傳統(tǒng)的車輛。本章回顧了空氣污染，氣體排放引起的全球變暖和石油資源枯竭的問題。并且也給出了電動汽車，混合動力汽車歷史和燃料電池技術(shù)的簡要回顧。 1空氣污染 目前，所有的汽車都是通過碳氫化合物燃料的燃燒而獲得其推動力所需的能量。燃燒是燃料和空氣所產(chǎn)生的反應(yīng)，并釋放出熱量和燃燒產(chǎn)物。熱量通過發(fā)動機轉(zhuǎn)化成機械能并且燃燒產(chǎn)物排放到了大氣中。HC是一種其分子由碳原子和氫原子組成的化合物。理想情況下，碳氫的燃燒只會產(chǎn)生不會對環(huán)境造成危害的二氧化碳和水。事實上，綠色植物通過光合作用吸收二氧化碳。二氧化碳是植物生命所需的必要成分。除非是空氣中氧氣幾乎不存在，動物的呼吸并不受吸入二氧化碳的影響。 事實上，在燃燒發(fā)動機中，HC的燃燒從來都不是理想的。除了二氧化碳和水，燃燒產(chǎn)物中包含了一定量對人體健康有毒的氮氧化合物（NOx）, 一氧化碳（CO），和未燃燒的碳氫化合物。 1.1氮氧化物 氮氧化物產(chǎn)生于空氣中氮氣和氧氣之間的反應(yīng)。理論上講，氮氣是一種惰性氣體。然而，發(fā)動機中的高溫高壓環(huán)境卻為氮氧化物的產(chǎn)生創(chuàng)造了有利的條件。溫度是迄今為止氮氧化物形成的最重要的參數(shù)。最常見的氮氧化物是一氧化氮（NO），少量的二氧化氮（NO2）和微量的氧化亞氮（N2O）。一旦釋放到空氣中，一氧化氮就會和氧氣反應(yīng)生成二氧化氮。而二氧化氮接著又會在太陽紫外線的作用下分解為一氧化氮和會對生物活細胞膜產(chǎn)生攻擊的高活性氧原子。氮氧化物對煙塵的產(chǎn)生負有一定的責(zé)任，其呈褐色的顏色可以使煙霧可見，它也會和大氣中的水分反應(yīng)形成可溶于雨水的硝酸（HNO3）。這種現(xiàn)象被稱為“酸雨”，酸雨對工業(yè)發(fā)達國家森林的破壞負有責(zé)任，酸雨也會對由大理石制成的歷史遺跡造成破壞。 1.2一氧化碳 一氧化碳是在缺氧環(huán)境下，由于HC的不完全燃燒而產(chǎn)生的。對于吸入一氧化碳的人和動物而言，它是一種有毒物質(zhì)。一旦一氧化碳到達血細胞，它就會取代血紅蛋白中的氧，從而減少了到達各個器官的氧的數(shù)量并降低了影響生物的生理，心理能力。頭暈是一氧化碳中毒的首發(fā)癥狀，并且可迅速導(dǎo)致死亡。一氧化碳與血紅蛋白的結(jié)合力比氧更強烈。這種結(jié)合物的性質(zhì)十分穩(wěn)定，身體正常的代謝無法分解破壞它們。因此一氧化碳中毒的人必須在加壓室中治療，其中的壓力使它更容易打破該一氧化碳血紅蛋白結(jié)合物。 1.3未燃燒的碳氫化合物 未燃燒的碳氫化合物是由于碳氫化合物的不完全燃燒而生成的。根據(jù)其性質(zhì)，未燃燒的碳氫化合物對生物可能是有害的。這些未燃燒的碳氫化合物可直接成為有毒物質(zhì)或致癌的化學(xué)物質(zhì)，如顆粒物，苯或其他物質(zhì)。未燃燒的碳氫化合物也對煙霧的產(chǎn)生負有一定的責(zé)任：紫外線與大氣中的未燃燒的碳氫化合物和一氧化氮相互作用會生成臭氧和其他物質(zhì)。臭氧分子由3個氧原子組成。它是無色的但卻十分危險，它自身的有毒性能攻擊活細胞的細胞膜，導(dǎo)致他們提前成熟或死亡。幼兒，老年人和哮喘病人如果處于濃度較高的臭氧環(huán)境中，就會遭受到很大的傷害與痛苦。每年，在污染嚴重的城市，由于高濃度臭氧而導(dǎo)致死亡的事件已經(jīng)被報道。 1.4其他污染物 燃料中雜質(zhì)的存在導(dǎo)致了排放物的污染。雜質(zhì)中主要的成分是硫：它主要存在于柴油和噴氣燃料中，但同時也存在于汽油和天然氣中。硫（或如硫化氫等硫化物）與氧燃燒釋放硫氧化物（SOx）。二氧化硫（SO2）是這燃燒的主要產(chǎn)物。二氧化硫與空氣接觸后形成三氧化硫，接著與水反應(yīng)生成硫酸（酸雨的主要成分）。也應(yīng)當指出的是，硫氧化物的排放來自于交通，但也同樣大量來自于火力發(fā)電廠和鋼鐵廠。此外，有爭論表明火山噴發(fā)是硫化物排放的自然來源。 石油公司在他們生產(chǎn)的燃料中加入了一定的化學(xué)化合物以提高燃油發(fā)動機的性能與壽命。四乙基鉛，被稱作為“鉛”，是用來提高汽油的抗爆震性能，因此發(fā)動機能發(fā)揮更好的性能。然而，這種化學(xué)物質(zhì)會釋放回轉(zhuǎn)金屬鉛，這種物質(zhì)會引起被稱為“鉛中毒”的神經(jīng)性疾病。現(xiàn)在在大多數(shù)的發(fā)達國家，這種含鉛汽油已經(jīng)被禁止使用，并且它已經(jīng)被其他的化學(xué)物質(zhì)所替代。 2全球變暖 全球變暖是由于空氣中的二氧化碳和其他大氣中的氣體如甲烷等氣體導(dǎo)致的“溫室效應(yīng)”所引起的。這些氣體吸收地球表面反射的紅外輻射，從而在大氣中儲存能量，進而導(dǎo)致了溫度的升高。全球氣溫的升高造成了對生態(tài)系統(tǒng)巨大的生態(tài)危害，并導(dǎo)致了很多自然災(zāi)難的發(fā)生，從而影響了整個人類。 考慮到包括全球變暖在內(nèi)的生態(tài)破壞，一些瀕危物種的消失開始成為人們所擔(dān)憂的問題因為一些人類賴以生存的自然資源遭到了破壞，變得越發(fā)的不穩(wěn)定。也有人擔(dān)心一些來自海洋溫暖區(qū)域的生物遷移至前寒冷的北部海域會潛在的導(dǎo)致該地區(qū)自身的物種和經(jīng)濟遭到這些外來物種的破壞。這樣的現(xiàn)象可能已經(jīng)在地中海地區(qū)發(fā)生了：在這里已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了紅海梭魚。 因為自然災(zāi)害所帶來的大幅度的傷害使得自然災(zāi)害吸引我們的關(guān)注要超過生態(tài)災(zāi)難。全球變暖已被認為會導(dǎo)致“厄爾尼諾”氣象的發(fā)生，這樣的氣象擾亂了整個南太平洋地區(qū)正常的氣象，經(jīng)常發(fā)生龍卷風(fēng)，洪水泛濫或者干燥大旱。全球變暖的另一個后果就是北極冰蓋的融化，這種現(xiàn)象的發(fā)生導(dǎo)致海平面上升，進而致使沿海地區(qū)甚至整個國家都被永久淹沒。 二氧化碳是碳氫化合物和燃煤燃燒的產(chǎn)物，交通運輸產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳量占到了二氧化碳排放總量的很大的比例（1980到1999占了32%）圖1.1顯示了1980到1999年二氧化碳排放的總體分布情況。 圖1.2顯示了在二氧化碳排放的趨勢。交通運輸部門現(xiàn)在顯然是二氧化碳排放的主要來源。應(yīng)當指出的是，發(fā)展中國家正在迅速加大其運輸部門的規(guī)模，而這些國家的人口占了世界人口的很大一部分。進一步的討論將在下一節(jié)提供。 根據(jù)在過去幾十年中所觀察到的數(shù)據(jù)來看，由于人類活動放排到大氣中大量的二氧化碳是全球氣溫升高的主要原因。（圖1.3）值得注意的是，二氧化碳確實能被植物所吸收，能以碳酸鹽的形式被大海吸收而被存儲在大海中。 圖1.1 1980—1999年二氧化碳排放分布 圖1.2 CO2排放的演變 圖1.3 全球地球大氣溫度（來源：政府氣候變化專門委員會（1995）更新。） 然而這些自然吸收的過程是有限的，這些吸收作用不能吸收全部的二氧化碳從而導(dǎo)致大氣中的二氧化碳逐漸積累。 3石油資源 交通運輸中所需的大量的燃料絕大部分都是源自于石油的液體燃料。石油是一種化石燃料，它的形成源自于數(shù)百萬年前（奧陶紀時期，約400—600萬年前），生物分解后存在于地質(zhì)穩(wěn)定層中，經(jīng)過數(shù)百萬年的變化最終變成了石油。石油形成的過程大致如下：生物（主要是植物）死亡后，慢慢地被沉積物所覆蓋。隨著時間的推移，這些沉積物就形成了很厚的地質(zhì)層并轉(zhuǎn)換成了巖石。這些生物分解物被積壓在一個封閉的空間里，在高溫高壓下，根據(jù)他們自身性質(zhì)的不同，分別轉(zhuǎn)換成為了碳氫化合物或煤。這個過程通常要花數(shù)百萬年的時間來完成。這就是為什么地球的化石資源是一種有限的資源。 已探明的礦藏含量是：在現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟和與操作條件下，已知的礦藏含量與地質(zhì)和工程信息相結(jié)合而合理推測出的在未來能夠恢復(fù)的礦藏含量。因此，這項信息并不能作為衡量全球礦藏儲存量的一個指標。表1.1給出了英國石油公司在2001年估計的探明礦藏量。R/P比是在現(xiàn)有的生產(chǎn)水平上探明儲量能夠持續(xù)的年數(shù)。這項數(shù)據(jù)同樣也在表1.1中列出了。 如今的石油開采通常是近地表易于開采的石油，在開采的地方區(qū)域氣候不會帶來很大的問題。據(jù)了解，更多的石油位于地殼以下的部分像西伯利亞，美國或加拿大的北極地區(qū)。在這些地區(qū)，氣候和生態(tài)是石油勘探和開采的主要障礙。由于政治和技術(shù)的原因，整個地球礦藏含量的估計是一個非常苦難的任務(wù)。表1.2給出了2000年美國地質(zhì)調(diào)查局估計的未探明的石油資源。 R/P比并未將未來會探明的礦藏儲量包含在內(nèi)考慮，但是它仍是一項十分重要的指標。事實上，它是基于如今很容易知道的現(xiàn)有已探明的礦藏儲量而得出的。未來礦藏發(fā)現(xiàn)的含量只是一個假設(shè)，并且最新探明的含量并不是很容易獲知，R/P比同樣也基于生產(chǎn)力將保持不變這一假設(shè)。然而，很明顯的是礦藏消費（也就是生產(chǎn)）逐年都在隨著發(fā)達國家和發(fā)展中國家增長的經(jīng)濟而加大。礦藏消費很可能在一些人口十分密集的地區(qū)迅速增長，特別是在亞太地區(qū)。圖1.4顯示了在過去的20年里，每日石油消費的變化趨勢（單位：天/千桶，一桶約合8噸）。 表1.1 表1.2 就像圖1.5所顯示的，盡管東歐和前蘇聯(lián)的石油消耗在下降，但全球整體的石油消耗的趨勢是上升的。石油消耗增長最快的地方是生活著地球上大部分人的亞太地區(qū)。 圖1.4各地區(qū)的石油消費量 圖1.5 世界石油消費量 我們可以預(yù)期到石油消耗會產(chǎn)生一個爆炸式的增長，同時這樣的增長會伴隨著污染物和二氧化碳排放含量比例的增加。 4成本代價 伴隨著化石燃料燃燒帶來的問題有許多：污染，全球變暖，可預(yù)見的資源枯竭等等問題。雖然很難估計，但是它所帶來的相關(guān)問題確實是巨大的，間接的，可能是財務(wù)的，可能是人力的，也可能兩者都包括。 由污染所帶來的成本代價包括了醫(yī)療費用，酸雨破壞森林而需要重新種植的成本，酸雨侵蝕紀念碑而需要清理和修復(fù)的成本，還有很多并不限于上述的一些代價。醫(yī)療費用可能占了這些費用的最大份額，尤其是在發(fā)達國家公費醫(yī)療或醫(yī)療保險的人群。 與全球變暖有關(guān)的成本是難以評估的。他們可能包括颶風(fēng)所造成的損害，因為干旱而死去的莊稼，因為洪水而遭到破壞的財產(chǎn)以及為了去幫助那些感染的人們所提供的國際醫(yī)療救援，這些花銷的數(shù)額十分巨大。 大多數(shù)的石油生產(chǎn)國并不是最到的石油消費國，大多數(shù)的石油產(chǎn)地都位于中東，但是大多數(shù)的石油消費地卻位于歐洲，北美洲，和亞太地區(qū)。因此，消費者很依賴進口石油和石油生產(chǎn)國。這個問題在中東地區(qū)十分敏感，在1973和1977年，由于政治動亂而影響了石油出口歐洲的數(shù)量。海灣戰(zhàn)爭，是伊朗-伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭，美國及其同盟勢力在地區(qū)內(nèi)不斷進行的監(jiān)視行動花費了大量的物力和財力。西方經(jīng)濟對于波動的石油供應(yīng)的依賴潛在里所需要的花費是巨大的.事實上,一次石油供應(yīng)的短缺就會造成經(jīng)濟增長的嚴重放緩,進而導(dǎo)致貨物的損壞,失去商業(yè)機遇,并最終無法進行商業(yè)運作。 在尋找與石油消費相關(guān)問題的解決方法時，必須考慮那些成本問題。但這項工作是非常困難的，因為許多的花費并不能在它產(chǎn)生的地方直接被認定。許多的誘導(dǎo)成本不能被記入認定的最終方案的益處里。為了能在長期的運作中維持，這些問題的解決必須在沒有政府補貼的情況下具有經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)性和商業(yè)可行性。然而，很清晰的是即便是部分的解決方案，任何的解決方法都將會有利于納稅人，帶來成本的節(jié)約。 附件：外文資料原文 Environmental Impact and History of Modern Transportation The development of internal combustion (IC) engine vehicles, and especially automobiles, is one of the greatest achievements of modern technology. Automobiles have made great contributions to the growth of modern society by satisfying many of the needs for mobility in everyday life. The rapid development of the automotive industry, unlike that of any other industry, has prompted the progress of human beings from a primitive security to a highly developed industrial one. The automobile industry and the other industries that serve it constitute the backbone of the world’s economy and employ the greatest share of the working population. However, the large number of automobiles in use around the world has caused and continues to cause serious problems for environment and human life. Air pollution, global warming, and the rapid depletion of the Earth’s petroleum resources are now problems of paramount concern. In recent decades, the research and development activities related to transportation have emphasized the development of high-efficiency, clean, and safe transportation. Electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs),and fuel cell vehicles have been typically proposed to replace conventional vehicles in the near future. This chapter reviews the problems of air pollution, gas emissions causing global warming, and petroleum resource depletion. It also gives a brief review of the history of EVs, HEVs, and fuel cell technology. 1 Air Pollution At present, all vehicles rely on the combustion of hydrocarbon (HC) fuels to derive the energy necessary for their propulsion. Combustion is a reaction between the fuel and the air that releases heat and combustion products.The heat is converted to mechanical power by an engine and the combustion. products are released to the atmosphere. An HC is a chemical compound with molecules made up of carbon and hydrogen atoms. Ideally, the combustion of an HC yields only carbon dioxide and water, which do not harm the environment. Indeed, green plants “digest” carbon dioxide by photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is a necessary ingredient in vegetal life. Animals do not suffer from breathing carbon dioxide unless its concentration in air is such that oxygen is almost absent. Actually, the combustion of HC fuel in combustion engines is never ideal.Besides carbon dioxide and water, the combustion products contain a certain amount of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxides (CO), and unburned HCs, all of which are toxic to human health. 1.1Nitrogen Oxides Nitrogen oxides (NOx) result from the reaction between nitrogen in the air and oxygen. Theoretically, nitrogen is an inert gas. However, the high temperatures and pressures in engines create favorable conditions for the formation of nitrogen oxides. Temperature is by far the most important parameter in nitrogen oxide formation. The most commonly found nitrogen oxide is nitric oxide (NO), although small amounts of nitric dioxide (NO2) and traces of nitrous oxide (N2O) are present. Once released into the atmosphere, NO reacts with the oxygen to form NO2. This is later decomposed by the Sun’s ultraviolet radiation back to NO and highly reactive oxygen atoms that attack the membranes of living cells. Nitrogen dioxide is partly responsible for smog; its brownish color makes smog visible. It also reacts with atmospheric water to form nitric acid (HNO3), which dilutes in rain. This phenomenon is referred to as “acid rain” and is responsible for the destruction of forests in industrialized countries.Acid rain also contributes to the degradation of historical monuments made of marble.1 1.2Carbon Monoxide Carbon monoxide results from the incomplete combustion of HCs due to a lack of oxygen.It is a poison to human beings and animals who inhale/breathe it. Once carbon monoxide reaches the blood cells, it fixes to the hemoglobin in place of oxygen, thus diminishing the quantity of oxy-gen that reaches the organs and reducing the physical and mental abilities of affected living beings.Dizziness is the first symptom of carbon monoxide poisoning, which can rapidly lead to death. Carbon monoxide binds more strongly to hemoglobin than oxygen. The bonds are so strong that normal body functions cannot break them. People intoxicated by carbon monoxide must be treated in pressurized chambers, where the pressure makes it easier to break the carbon monoxide–hemoglobin bonds.Environmental Impact and History of Modern Transportation. 1.3 Unburned HCs Unburned HCs are a result of the incomplete combustion of HCs.1,2 Depending on their nature, unburned HCs may be harmful to living beings. Some of these unburned HCs may be direct poisons or carcinogenic chemicals such as particulates, benzene, or others. Unburned HCs are also responsible for smog:the Sun’s ultraviolet radiations interact with the unburned HCs and NO in the atmosphere to form ozone and other products. Ozone is a molecule formed of three oxygen atoms. It is colorless but very dangerous, and is poisonous because as it attacks the membranes of living cells, causing them to age pre-maturely or die. Toddlers, older people, and asthmatics suffer greatly from exposure to high ozone concentrations. Annually, deaths from high ozone peaks in polluted cities have been reported. 1.4Other Pollutants Impurities in fuels result in the emission of pollutants. The major impurity is sulfur: mostly found in diesel and jet fuel, but also in gasoline and natural gas. The combustion of sulfur (or sulfur compounds such as hydrogen sulfide) with oxygen releases sulfur oxides (SOx). Sulfur dioxide (SO2)is the major product of this combustion. On contact with air, it forms sulfur trioxide,which later reacts with water to form sulfuric acid, a major component of acid rain. It should be noted that sulfur oxide emissions originate from transportation sources but also largely from the combustion of coal in power plants and steel factories. In addition, there is debate over the exact contribution of natural sources such as volcanoes. Petroleum companies add chemical compounds to their fuels in orderto improve the performance or lifetime of engines.Tetraethyl lead, often referred to simply as “l(fā)ead,” was used to improve the knock resistance of gasoline and therefore allow better engine performance. However, the combustion of this chemical releases lead metal, which is responsible for a neurological disease called “saturnism.” Its use is now forbidden in most developed countriesand it has been replaced by other chemicals. 2 Global Warming Global warming is a result of the “greenhouse effect” induced by the presence of carbon dioxide and other gases, such as methane, in the atmosphere. These gases trap the Sun’s infrared radiation reflected by the ground, thus retaining the energy in the atmosphere and increasing the temperature. An increased Earth temperature results in major ecological damages to its ecosystems and in many natural disasters that affect human populations. Considering the ecological damages induced by global warming, the disappearance of some endangered species is a concern because this destabilizes the natural resources that feed some populations. There are also concerns about the migration of some species from warm seas to previously colder northern seas, where they can potentially destroy indigenous species and the economies that live off those species. This may be happening in the Mediterranean Sea, where barracudas from the Red Sea have been observed. Natural disasters command our attention more than ecological disasters because of the amplitude of the damages they cause. Global warming is believed to have induced meteorological phenomena such as “El Ni?o,”which disturbs the South Pacific region and regularly causes tornadoes, inundations, and dryness. The melting of the polar icecaps, another major result of global warming, raises the sea level and can cause the permanent inundation of coastal regions and sometimes of entire countries. Carbon dioxide is the result of the combustion of HCs and coal. Transportation accounts for a large share (32% from 1980 to 1999) of carbon dioxide emissions. The distribution of carbon dioxide emissions is shown in Figure 1.1. Figure 1.2 shows the trend in carbon dioxide emissions. The transportation sector is clearly now the major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. It should be noted that developing countries are rapidly increasing their transportation sector, and these countries represent a very large share of the world population. Further discussion is provided in the next subsection. The large amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by human activities are believed to be largely responsible for the increase in the global Earth temperature observed during the last decades (Figure 1.3). It is important to note that carbon dioxide is indeed digested by plants and sequestrated by oceans in the form of carbonates. However, these natural Residential assimilation processes are limited and cannot assimilate all of the emitted carbon dioxide, resulting in an accumulation FIGURE 1.1 Carbon dioxide emission distribution from 1980 to 1999. FIGURE 1.2 Evolution of CO2 emission. FIGURE 1.3 Global Earth atmospheric temperature. (Source:IPCC (1995) updated.) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. 3 Petroleum Resources The vast majority of fuels for transportation are liquid fuels originating from petroleum. Petroleum is a fossil fuel, resulting from the decomposition of living matters that were imprisoned millions of years ago (Ordovician, 600–400 million years ago) in geologically stable layers. The process is roughly the following: living matters (mostly plants) die and are slowly covered by sediments. Over time, these accumulating sediments form thick layers and transform to rock. The living matters are trapped in a closed space, where they encounter high pressures and temperatures and slowly transform into either HCs or coal, depending on their nature. This process takes millions of years to accomplish. This is what makes the Earth’s resources in fossil fuels finite. Proved reserves are “those quantities that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.” Therefore, they do not constitute an indicator of the Earth’s total reserves. The proved reserves, as they are given in the British Petroleum 2001 estimate,are given in billion tons in Table 1.1. TheR/Pratio is the number of years that the proved reserves would last if the production were to continue at its current level. This ratio is also given in Table 1.1 for each region. The oil extracted nowadays is the easily extractable oil that lies close to the surface, in regions where the climate does not pose major problems. It is believed that far more oil lies underneath the Earth’s crust in regions such as Siberia, or the American and Canadian Arctic. In these regions, the climate and ecological concerns are major obstacles to extracting or prospecting for oil. The estimation of the total Earth’s reserves is a difficult task for political and technical reasons. A 2000 estimation of the undiscovered oil resources by the US Geological Survey is given in Table 1.2. Although theR/Pratio does not include future discoveries, it is significant. Indeed, it is based on proved reserves, which are easily accessible to this day. The amount of future oil discoveries is hypothetical, and the newly discovered oil will not be easily accessible. TheR/Pratio is also based on the hypothesis that the production will remain constant. It is obvious, however,that consumption (and therefore production) is increasing yearly to keep up with the growth of developed and developing economies. Consumption is likely to increase in gigantic proportions with the rapid development of some largely populated countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Figure 1.4 shows the trend in oil consumption over the last 20 years.Oil consumption is given in thousand barrels per day (one barrel is about 8 metric tons). Despite the drop in oil consumption for Eastern Europe and the former USSR, the world trend is clearly increasing, as shown in Figure 1.5. The fastest-growing region is Asia Pacific, where most of the world’s population lives. An explosion in oil consumption is to be expected, with FIGURE 1.4 Oil consumption per region. a proportional increase in pollutant emissions and CO2emissions. 4 Induced Costs The problems associated with the frenetic combustion of fossil fuels are many:pollution, global warming, and foreseeable exhaustion of resources, among others. Although difficult to estimate, the costs associated with these problems are huge and indirect,and may be financial, human, or both. Costs induced by pollution include, but are not limited to, health expenses,the cost of replanting forests devastated by acid rain, and the cost of cleaning and fixing monuments corroded by acid rain. Health expenses probably represent the largest share of these costs, especially in developed countries with socialized medicine or health-insured populations. Costs associated with global warming are difficult to assess. They may include the cost of the damages caused by hurricanes, lost crops due to dryness, damaged properties due to floods, and international aid to relieve the affected populations. The amount is potentially huge. Most of the petroleum-producing countries are not the largest petroleum-consuming countries. Most of the production is located in the Middle East,while most of the consumption is located in Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific. As a result, consumers have to import their oil and depend on the producing countries. This issue is particularly sensitive in the Middle Environmental Impact and History of Modern Transportation East, where political turmoil affected the oil delivery to Western countries in 1973 and 1977. The Gulf War, the Iran–Iraq war, and the constant surveillance of the area by the United States and allied forces come at a cost that is both human and financial. The dependency of Western economies on a fluctuating oil supply is potentially expensive. Indeed, a shortage in oil supply causes a serious slowdown of the economy, resulting in damaged perishable goods, lost business opportunities, and the eventual impossibility to run businesses. In searching for a solution to the problems associated with oil consumption,one has to take into account those induced costs. This is difficult because the cost is not necessarily asserted where it is generated. Many of the induced costs cannot be counted in asserting the benefits of an eventual solution. The solution to these problems will have to be economically sustainable and c