演講稿(全球經(jīng)濟與中國投資熱).ppt

NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,全球經(jīng)濟展望與中國的投資熱潮,孫明春中國首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家/中國股票研究部主管野村證券2009年10月,除非另有說明，否則本報告中的署名作者均為研究分析師。請參閱本報告最后一頁的重要披露和重要分析員保證。,全球經(jīng)濟展望：鮮明的對比,3,NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,我們的全球經(jīng)濟觀點一覽,積極的政策反應(yīng)幫助全球經(jīng)濟走出了衰退，但需要看到的是，危機余波的影響將會持續(xù)很長一段時間。世界似乎被一分為二：發(fā)達(dá)國家在很長一段時間都會復(fù)蘇乏力，而很多新興經(jīng)濟體則將開始強勁增長。應(yīng)對危機所采取的貨幣政策應(yīng)該不會導(dǎo)致通脹失控；如果出現(xiàn)這一風(fēng)險，具有獨立性的央行可能會緊縮政策。除了金融危機再次爆發(fā)的風(fēng)險以外，主要的風(fēng)險是：一旦政策緊縮，仍然疲軟的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟體可能會再度萎縮?？赡艿纳闲酗L(fēng)險：樂觀情緒再加上貨幣政策刺激啟動了良性循環(huán)。,4,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,從危機導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟衰退中復(fù)蘇,實際GDP增長(%年同比),_備注:根據(jù)購買力平價調(diào)整后的世界GDP份額來計算總量；發(fā)達(dá)國家包括美國、加拿大、日本、澳大利亞、香港、新加坡、歐元區(qū)和英國；其他所有國家均被認(rèn)為是新興市場；金磚四國：巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國。數(shù)據(jù)來源：野村全球經(jīng)濟。,5,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,通縮不再，但高通脹的風(fēng)險很小,CPI(%年同比),_數(shù)據(jù)來源：野村全球經(jīng)濟。,6,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,貨幣刺激政策：政策利率接近0%,主要經(jīng)濟體的政策利率(%),_數(shù)據(jù)來源：野村全球經(jīng)濟。,預(yù)期,7,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,貨幣刺激政策：數(shù)量放松政策,央行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表(指數(shù)，2007年1月份=100),_備注：可獲得8月份中旬的英國央行數(shù)據(jù)。數(shù)據(jù)來源：各國央行網(wǎng)站和野村全球經(jīng)濟。,8,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,貨幣刺激政策：赤字創(chuàng)歷史新高,中央政府的預(yù)算收支(占GDP的%),_數(shù)據(jù)來源：野村全球經(jīng)濟。.,9,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美國：對各年份的預(yù)測圖,_數(shù)據(jù)來源：野村全球經(jīng)濟。,(%年同比),(%年同比),(占GDP的%),(占GDP的%),10,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美國：房地產(chǎn)沖擊接近尾聲,美國住宅投資占GDP的比例(%),_備注：陰影部分表示衰退期。數(shù)據(jù)來源：野村全球經(jīng)濟。,11,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美國：與正常水平相距甚遠(yuǎn),新屋開工和新建家庭的數(shù)量(百萬,經(jīng)季調(diào)后年率),_備注：*保持穩(wěn)定戶主率的家庭數(shù)量的增長。數(shù)據(jù)來源：美國人口普查局和野村全球經(jīng)濟。.,12,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美國：庫存高企,對獨戶住宅過剩存量的估計（百萬套）,_備注:獨戶住宅最優(yōu)存量的經(jīng)濟計量模型的殘值；模型是基于家庭人口增長、實際可支配個人收入以及居住成本（稅后抵押貸款利率、房價預(yù)期、住宅投資的相對價格和折舊估計值的函數(shù)）。數(shù)據(jù)來源：野村全球經(jīng)濟。,13,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美國：房屋銷售轉(zhuǎn)好,獨戶住宅銷售（百萬套，經(jīng)季調(diào)后年率）,_數(shù)據(jù)來源：全國房地產(chǎn)商協(xié)會和人口普查局。,14,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美國：房價初步企穩(wěn),美國房價指數(shù)(2006年1月份=100),_備注:所有數(shù)據(jù)均利用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)統(tǒng)計技術(shù)進行季節(jié)性調(diào)整（有可能未考慮所有的季節(jié)性變化）；FHFA(之前的OFHEO)房價指數(shù)只衡量獲得agency-conforming貸款的房屋。,15,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美國：三分之一的房屋資不抵債,截止2009年6月份，房屋抵押貸款中資不抵債的貸款比例(%),_數(shù)據(jù)來源：LoanPerformance。,16,NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,美國:房貸合同修改影響有限,修改后的房屋抵押貸款中，逾期30天以上未還款的違約率(%),_數(shù)據(jù)來源:OCC和OTC抵押貸款指標(biāo)報告。,修改后的幾個月,17,NomuraSecuritiesInternational28April2020,美國:強行收回的房屋數(shù)量穩(wěn)步增長,強行收回的房屋的新增數(shù)量(千套，每季度),_備注:數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)過調(diào)整以反映數(shù)據(jù)來源的覆蓋面。數(shù)據(jù)來源：抵押貸款銀行家協(xié)會。,18,NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,美國:住房抵押貸款債券的發(fā)行幾乎停滯,非機構(gòu)抵押貸款支持證券的發(fā)行量(十億美元),_數(shù)據(jù)來源:ABSAlert。,19,NomuraSecuritiesInternationalApril28,2020,美國:商業(yè)不動產(chǎn)遭遇重挫,不動產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)(指數(shù),2000年一季度=100),_數(shù)據(jù)來源:SNomuraInternationalplcandNomuraResearchInstituteEurope,Limited,UnitedKingdom;NomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.("NSI")andNomuraResearchInstituteAmerica,Inc.,NewYork,NY;NomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.,HongKong;NomuraSingaporeLtd.,Singapore;NomuraAustraliaLtd.,Australia;P.T.NomuraIndonesia,Indonesia;NomuraAdvisoryServices(Malaysia)Sdn.Bhd.,Malaysia;NomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.,TaipeiBranch,Taipei,Taiwan;orNomuraSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.,Seoul,Korea.Thismaterialis:(i)foryourprivateinformation,andwearenotsolicitinganyactionbaseduponit;(ii)nottobeconstruedasanoffertosellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbeillegal;and(iii)isbaseduponinformationthatweconsiderreliable,butwedonotrepresentthatitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotberelieduponassuch.Opinionsexpressedarecurrentopinionsasofthedateappearingonthismaterialonlyandtheinformation,includingtheopinionscontainedhereinaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Affiliatesand/orsubsidiariesofNomuraHoldings,Inc.(collectivelyreferredtoasthe“NomuraGroup”)mayfromtimetotimeperforminvestmentbankingorotherservices(includingactingasadvisor,managerorlender)for,orsolicitinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessfrom,companiesmentionedherein.TheNomuraGroup,itsofficers,directorsandemployees,includingpersonsinvolvedinthepreparationorissuanceofthismaterialmay,fromtimetotime,havelongorshortpositionsin,andbuyorsell(ormakeamarketin),thesecurities,orderivatives(includingoptions)thereof,ofcompaniesmentionedherein,orrelatedsecuritiesorderivatives.Fixedincomeresearchanalysts,includingthoseresponsibleforthepreparationofthisreport,receivecompensationbasedonvariousfactors,includingqualityandaccuracyofresearch,firmsoverallperformanceandrevenue(includingthefirmsfixedincomedepartment),clientfeedbackandtheanalystsseniority,reputationandexperience.NSCandothernon-USmembersoftheNomuraGroup,theirofficers,directorsandemployeesmay,totheextentitrelatestonon-USissuersandispermittedbyapplicablelaw,haveacteduponorusedthismaterial,priortoorimmediatelyfoll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