Earth_2100(地球2100)字幕【技巧類別】

THE EARTH 2100LUCYIn my life, I've seen New York City under full quarantine. The Midwest, overrun, devastated by pests. Plagues sweep across California. And then what happened next was something none of us saw coming. It became a race against time to save our future, to even have a future. It's the year 2100 and I-survived.To change the future, first you have to imagine it. "Earth 2100" starts now.HOST(MAIN)The idea that within this century, perhaps in your lifetime, our civilization could lie in ruins seems unbelievable. But according to some of the world's leading minds, that's not just a worst-case scenario, it's a real possibility.Good evening, I'm Bob Woodruff. Over the next two hours, we'll take you on a journey into a world that could await us and our children. 370,000 babies will be born today. And we've taken the liberty of creating one more, a fictional character we're calling Lucy, who will be our guide through this century. Her life story is not a prediction about what will happen, but what might happen.Jun 02 2100This once glorious city, whose lights at night could be seen for miles, empty now. It's towering skyscrapers, once a testament to our ingenuity, now stand as crumbling monuments to our demise.JOHN PEDESTA“Maybe only artists can grasp what that kind off future really holds for us. It's perhaps in the area that we think of today as science fiction, but that could be a very real future for the planet.”JARED DIAMOND“A hundred years from now, if New York is abandoned, I can imagine some advanced creatures, maybe humans, maybe extraterrestrials, looking at New York and saying, those ignorant people, how on Earth could they have ever expected to survive?”LUCYI can ask myself what happened, but where do I begin? With the droughts, the famines, the plague? It began long before all that. I lived through it all. My story is everyone's story, the story of the last century.JUN 02 2009LUCYI was born June 2nd, 2009. Civilization was at a crossroads. We were in a race for our future.OBAMAToday, I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many.NEWSThe temperature is expected to keep going up. The stock market plunged.Douglas County will run out of drinking water.OBAMAThey will not be met easily or in a short span of time.NEWSSixth grader came down with suspected swine flu on Wednesday.THOMAS HOMER DIXONEnergy, climate, food, population, economic pressures, any one of these challenges mightbe very serious in itself. But because they're happening all simultaneously, it's going to be very difficult for our governments to cope.JARED DIAMONDWhen I look at the next century, I feel it's up for grabs.NEWS- Raising sea levels.- Catastrophic weather.- Ten-year drought.- it's scary.-These are things that are happening today.-The time for action is now.LUCYThe world had never known such uncertainty. We were used to having what we wanted and doling what we wanted.JARED DIAMONDThe analogy that I would draw is someone looking at their bank account and week after week, they're withdrawing money and they're enjoying the good life. If they would bother to read the statements, they would see that the bank account is dropping $900, $800, $700, $600. And at that rate you know that another six months of the good life is not gonna be a good life anymore. PETER GLEICKWe've acted as though we were independent of the environment. We burned fossil fuels. We've overused our renewable resources in the belief that we could do that forever.VAN JONESPeople are complaining about the economic crisis we have right now. You haven't seen nothing yet. You know, if we continue down this suicidal pathway that we're on, where we basically turn living stuff into dead stuff and call that economic growth, this will look like the good old days.APR 24 2012 THE GOOD OLD DAYSAlthough the world I was born into was running out of so much, water, oil, land, I remember a loving family, a big house, green lawn, more water than we knew what to do with. My parents must have known what was happening. We had a compact car and recycled. And it wasn't just us. Smart, imaginative people everywhere were working furiously on solutions. Our government was pouring money into alternative energy. It seemed like everyone was growing their own vegetable garden. Windmills were sprouting up all over. People were beginning to understand. But the clock was running out, and nature was always one step ahead.TERRY ROOTFlowers are blooming earlier and trees are leafing earlier. Birds are coming back from migration much earlier.JANINE BENYLUS If you were to pull back from the Earth, what you would see is sort of a refugee movement, if you will. And species are moving their ranges farther north to get to cool, from south to north, and from the valleys up to the mountain tops.AUG 27 2014 SUMMER OF THE DRAGONFLYLUCYOf course, as a child, I didn't notice these things, having nothing to compare it to. I was a little girl enchanted by my small world. Until one summer, thousands, maybe millions, of dragonflies showed up out of nowhere. They were delicate and beautiful and I put one in a jar. My mother was puzzled and looked them up. They were supposed to be in Cuba, not Miami. It was not until much later that I realized they were a sign of what was to come.HOST(MAIN)It's 2015, six short years from now, and the best-laid plans are getting underway. A wave farm off Scotland is harnessing the ocean's energy. Vatican City has gone totally solar. And here in America, cars are running cleaner and more efficiently. Still, we cling to that old habit, oil, and it's getting harder and more expensive to find.NEWSFrom coast to coast, motorists are searching for relief from soaring gas prices in California.THOMAS HOMER DIXONWe could see a doubling or tripling of real oil prices, that's after inflation. MICHAEL KLAREWe're running out of oil and we've created a society, the American way of life is what we call it, based on the assumption that oil will be plentiful forever.THOMAS HOMER DIXONThe large spread out suburbs that we've grown accustomed to, the strip malls, the big box stores with their enormous parking lots around them, all of those have been made possible because we've had cheap gasoline, and as energy becomes much more expensive, you'll see that those areas become less desirable places to live.FEB 18 2015 MOVING DAYLUCYThe first time I moved, I was six. A lot of people were leaving the suburbs for the city. There were new jobs, and you didn't need a car for everything. My dad was going to work on the new streetcar system in Miami. And my mother told me we were going to live on the top floor of an apartment building. She said we'd see the palm trees below us. I was excited, but also a little sad to leave.NEWSAs the price of oil goes up, It will ripple through every part of the global economy.In Washington today, protesters demanded an end to rising food prices.Our agriculture system is almost wholly dependent on cheap oil.JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLERTremendous amounts of diesel fuel that are used in planting and harvesting and then moving the stuff, all these vast distances.HEIDI CULLENBy 2015 in the United States, add about 20 million people to the population and then just play out what that does to consumption patterns. I mean, the, the number of people that we've got to feed. There's just basically this slow, creeping tension for natural resources.HOSTAs the American way of life becomes increasingly unsustainable, the rest of the world will be trying to catch up. ELIZABETH ECONOMYThe Chinese like cars. And they like big cars. You have 14,000 cars out onto China's roads daily.ROZ MAYLORIncomes are rising really rapidly. They're moving into meat-based diets.HOSTYou need 10 pounds of grain to get one pound of meat.There is simply no way that the rest of the world can start eating meat the way we do.HOSTIf everyone in the world consumed as much as the average American, It would take the resources of four Earths to support the planet's population, which raises the question, should the rest of the world consume less, or should we? American habits, though, are hard to break. RICHARD HEINBERGWe in the US have gotten used to the idea that we're somehow immune to natural limits and it's the other people who are going to suffer.JUL 14 2015 RUNNING ON EMPTYNEWSGood morning, Miami. The summer of 2015 is on track to become one of the hottest in history. Temperatures are expected to be in the triple digits.LUCYMy mother and I were waiting for gas. The line went around the block and then some. Nothing new. But this time, the line had stopped moving altogether. A man who worked at the gas station came out holding a sign. People started yelling and they got out of their cars and started moving towards him. My mother got us out of there fast. SEP 08 2015NEWSI've been staking out an area that's been hit hard recently by gas snatchers. Look at him, he gets out, walks right up to the car. Wow. Look at this, right in the middle of the day. There's cars going by, and these guys are -siphoning gas out of someone's car.In the face of mounting protests over rising gas and food prices, Congress today approved a plan to fund the construction of 40 new coal-fired power plants over the next five years.LUCYThe country took the easy way out. Coal was once again touted as our so- called salvation. But the more coal we burned, the faster our planet warmed. You get the picture.PETER CLEICKWe're spewing more carbon, more methane, more nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. All the bad things of climate change are coming true. LUCYAnd most people were just going along with their everyday lives as if nothing had changed. THOMAS HOMER DIXONAnd until we have a crisis of some kind, I don't think we're going to be motivated to wake up and say, okay, now we have to change.JOHN PODESTA Sometimes it takes a big shock to get people, you know, out of the inertia that, that, that's built into the system.OCT 21 2015 WAKE UP CALL (12:15)NEWSThey're calling it the storm of the century, Hurricane Linda packing Category 5 winds.LUCYBig storms weren't unusual. But this one was bigger than the others. And it was headed for Miami.NEWSAll coastal regions are being evacuated. This storm makes landfall, we're going to see a tremendous storm surge.LUCYMy mother was a nurse and she wouldn't leave until all the sick were evacuated from the hospital. My father was afraid we wouldn't get out in time. I was afraid too.NEWSThose who make the decision not to evacuate face life threatening danger, between the howling winds and those giant surging waves. Miami is a very scary place to be right now.HOST2015 is only six years away, but many experts say that if the world has not reached an agreement to massively reduce greenhouse gases by then, we could pass the point of no return.JOHN HOLDREDIf we're still dragging our feet in 2015, it really becomes almost impossible for the world to avert a degree of climate change that we simply will not be able to manage.THOMAS HOMER DIXONThe longer we wait without addressing these challenges in an aggressive way, the more likely it is we're going to end up with really bad outcomes.NEWSThis morning, in the aftermath of Hurricane Linda, we are seeing the first images of what remains of Miami. Neighbouring communities have been overwhelmed by hundreds of thousands of evacuees seeking refuge.OCT 23 2015 AFTER THE STORM(14:00)LUCYThe evacuation center was as big as an airplane hangar. Maybe it was an airplane hangar. And so jammed with people, It was hard to move. It was hot. It was noisy. We were there three weeks. There was nowhere for us to go. Nowhere for anybody to go. We watched the news on TV. I was only six, but it looked to me like the whole world was in trouble.NEWSSome 250,000 Bangladeshi refugees fleeing from last month's devastating cyclone are massing on the Indian border. Thousands riot as China faces it's worst wheat shortages in a decade, the result of seemingly endless drought.World leaders are gathering in Washington, DC to attend an emergency global summit meeting.Hopes are high that the world might finally reach an historic climate agreement.EO WILSONThis is the first time the whole planet is in that kind of a crisis and the whole planet has to join in meeting a crisis of epical proportions.HOSTIn 2008, the Center for the New American Security, a Washington think tank, staged an elaborate game. The goal was to simulate a global summit on climate change. The year is 2015. The context for the game is Lucy's context. Miami has been devastated by a hurricane, and Bangladesh ravaged by a cyclone. The people who are playing the roles of global leaders are in fact high level policymakers from around the world. “Let me be very clear, our time is running out. ” John Podesta, President Obama's transition chief, is playing the role of UN Secretary General. “Indeed today, in October of 2015, no country, no city is exempt from the ravages of climate change as we saw so tragically with the Category 5 hurricane that hit Miami.”HOSTIn the game, the Secretary General has asked for a 30% reduction In emissions by 2025. The US team holds a closed-door strategy session. “It's very important for us to strike that very positive leadership tone right out of the box.”“We have to be much faster and more serious about emission reductions.”“We need to do 30% .- By 2025?- By 2025.”HOSTBut there's a strong disagreement about whether the American public would be willing to make that kind of sacrifice.“Basically, the odds of a 30% reduction in the United States in 10 years is zero.”“The world is going to hell in a hand basket and we're saying, gee, can we stretch this out?”HOSTEven If the United States were willing to make these reductions, this is a global crisis that needs global action. The US calls a meeting with China.“We have an inherent responsibility to our people to take action.”HOSTIn 2015, China and India are in fact projected to account for more than 30% of the world's carbon emissions. But in the simulation, they're unwilling to agree to a treaty they feel limits their economic growth. For both countries, the issue is fairness. “The Western countries went through a very energy intensive development process, became rich by burning coal and burning oil. Can countries like India and China do it without burning as much fossil fuel as the West?”“We have to go greener. You have the technology and you have the capital and you're prepared to help us grow on a greener path. ”HOSTChina and India say they will agree to the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions only if the West hands over the technology needed to do so.“China would wish to get the technology for the third generation of nuclear power plants.”HOSTBut Europe and the US refuse. The technology belongs to private companies. Instead, they offer to help pay the costs of switching to cleaner energy.“You do the emissions reduction, and we give the money for the emissions reduction that you've done.”“If- somebody, you know, you have the money but you do not have the technology, and then you cannot reduce any emissions. ”HOSTThe whole summit hinges on whether they can come to an understanding. “So we're not putting any pressures. We're just offering, and I think it's a good offer.” “We do not accept the offer.”NEWSThe planet summit broke down today when China and India refused to agree to cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.“Ultimately, all the teams fell short. ”“That perhaps is the, the saddest element coming out of this, which is the pace of change just doesn't seem to be in keeping with the magnitude of the challenge.”HOSTScientists say that If this is how our leaders respond in 2015, the entire planet will be at risk.JOHN HOLDRENIf we continue on the business-as-usual trajectory, there will be a tipping point that we cannot avert. We will indeed drive the car over the cliff.LUCYThere was a story my mother once told me I'll never forget. You put a frog in a pot of cold water and turn the heat on. The water warms so gradually that the frog doesn't notice. It never realizes the precise moment it's cooked.THOMAS HOMER DIXONThe frog will sit there because it's not able to detect the small changes in temperature that are making his life increasingly dangerous. And we're in the same sort of situation. We're so adaptable in our evolution as a species, an adaptability that's allowed us to really, in a sense, conquer nature and conquer the world. But at this point, that adaptability is actually a real threat to our existence.LUCYAs I grew up, it became increasingly clear that we were the frogs. After our home was destroyed by the hurricane, my family moved to San Diego. Maybe because it was as far away from Miami as we could get. NEWSFinally, this evening, saving our seas. The federal government has released a major assessment on the oceans. The news is not good. It's going to be tough to drive this summer. Gas prices are expected to soar even higher.Increased heat speeds up evaporation cycles.In fact, these changes can be seen worldwide.Scientists report from the Arctic the tundra is thawing faster than expected.The United Nations announced today that there are now eight billion people living on Earth.JAN 06 2030 THE NEW NORMAL(20:52)LUCYIt's amazing what you can come to take for normal. By the time I was in my 20s, shortages and higher prices were just a fact of everyday life. After high school, I decided to train as an EMT. I wanted to be useful, and this seemed the perfect kind of work.HOST（MAIN）So what else will be normal in 2030? One thing, it will be warmer, about one and a half degrees Fahrenheit warmer. Enough to dramatically alter the planet's weather and rainfall. Canada and Siberia, for example, will be wetter and hotter. But for much of the world, rain will be scarce. And so will its most basic need, water.JANINE BENYUSBy 2030, two-thirds of the world's population will be underwater stress.In Asia, for example, glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau act as a giant reservoir for billions of people. DAN SCHRAGAll over the world, as the climate warms, mountain glaciers are melting at faster and faster rates.HOSTBy 2030, 80% of those glaciers may be gone. If the glaciers disappear, much of the food supply will disappear, as well. HEIDI CULLENThese glaciers provide stream flow in the summer during the dry months that you can use to irrigate your crops. When those glaciers are gone, you've got a massive drought situation.HOSTIn 2030, Africa could be facing extreme and widespread drought.EDWARD MIGUELRainfall levels are gonna continue to drop over time in Africa, especially in these fragile regions, like the Sahel. When the rains fail and people don't have enough to eat, they often turn to desperate means to survive.HOSTAnd in the US in 2030, many of the massive reservoirs fed by the Colorado River will be drying up.HEIDI CULLENWe talk about the Southwest moving into drought as, as a way to, to describe what's gonna happen. But technically, the Southwest, it's not gonna be in drought, it's gonna become a desert.FEB 14 2030 IN DEEP WATER(23:05)LUCYIn San Diego, they were ahead of the game. In 2009, they had started building huge desalination plants. It took 20 years and cost billions of dollars, but it worked. The massive plants on the ocean turned saltwater into fresh, and the city's water supply was restored. 400 miles inland, though, they were running out. And no one had enough money to buil