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附 錄A
電動(dòng)車：正在進(jìn)行的綠色交通革命？
隨著世界上持續(xù)的能源危機(jī)，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和石油消費(fèi)以及汽車數(shù)量的增加，能源日益減少，有一天它會(huì)消失得無(wú)影無(wú)蹤。石油并不是可再生資源。在石油消耗枯竭之前必須找到一種能源與之替代。隨著科技的發(fā)展和社會(huì)進(jìn)步，電動(dòng)車的發(fā)明將會(huì)有效的緩解這一燃眉之急。電動(dòng)汽車將成為理想的交通工具。
面臨能源成本居高不下、消費(fèi)者和政府更加重視環(huán)境保護(hù)的情況下，世界汽車制造商正加大對(duì)可替代能源性混合動(dòng)力汽車技術(shù)的開(kāi)發(fā)投資。該技術(shù)能極大削減燃料消費(fèi)，減少溫室氣體排放。許多人把目光投向了日本和美國(guó)的汽車制造商，關(guān)心他們開(kāi)發(fā)混合動(dòng)力和電池電動(dòng)車的進(jìn)展情況。豐田普銳斯一躍成為世界上銷量最好的混合動(dòng)力車。美國(guó)的新興汽車制造商，Tesla Motors，推出了該公司首部電池電力車，名為Tesla Roadster。截至2010年底，通用汽車公司計(jì)劃推出備受贊譽(yù)的Volt混合動(dòng)力汽車，而克萊斯勒公司最近已經(jīng)宣布同樣的計(jì)劃正在進(jìn)行之中。
目前，中國(guó)在新能源汽車的自主創(chuàng)新過(guò)程中，堅(jiān)持了政府支持，以核心技術(shù)、關(guān)鍵部件和系統(tǒng)集成為重點(diǎn)的原則，確立了以混合電動(dòng)汽車、純電動(dòng)汽車、燃料電池汽車為“三縱”，以整車控制系統(tǒng)、電機(jī)驅(qū)動(dòng)系統(tǒng)、動(dòng)力蓄電池/燃料電池為“三橫”的研發(fā)布局，通過(guò)產(chǎn)學(xué)研緊密合作，中國(guó)混合動(dòng)力汽車的自主創(chuàng)新取得了重大進(jìn)展。形成了具有完全自主知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)技術(shù)平臺(tái)，建立了混合動(dòng)力汽車技術(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)體系?；旌蟿?dòng)力汽車的核心是電池（包括電池管理系統(tǒng)）技術(shù)。除此之外，還包括發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)技術(shù)、電機(jī)控制技術(shù)、整車控制技術(shù)等，發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)和電機(jī)之間動(dòng)力的轉(zhuǎn)換和銜接也是重點(diǎn)。從目前情況來(lái)看，中國(guó)已經(jīng)建立起了混合動(dòng)力汽車動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)技術(shù)平臺(tái)和產(chǎn)學(xué)研合作研發(fā)體系，取得了一系列突破性成果，為整車開(kāi)發(fā)奠定了堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。截止到2009年1月31日，在混合動(dòng)力車輛技術(shù)領(lǐng)域，中國(guó)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)局受理并公開(kāi)的中國(guó)專利申請(qǐng)為1116件。 在1116件專利申請(qǐng)中，發(fā)明為782件（授權(quán)為107件）、實(shí)用新型為334件。
同美國(guó)、日本、中國(guó)以及和其他國(guó)家一樣，歐洲的一部分國(guó)家也宣布了關(guān)于采用推廣電動(dòng)車的大膽的計(jì)劃，包括財(cái)政激勵(lì)、資助電池和電動(dòng)車的研究、還有關(guān)于充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的調(diào)配分布計(jì)劃。像倫敦和巴黎這樣的主要城市已經(jīng)宣布了電動(dòng)車共享系統(tǒng)，而擁有大型自有車隊(duì)的公共管理部門和公司需要采購(gòu)電動(dòng)車。
與此同時(shí)，公用事業(yè)、汽車制造商、電池生產(chǎn)商和學(xué)者等共同參與發(fā)起了如歐盟電動(dòng)汽車工作隊(duì)和EpoSS——?dú)W洲技術(shù)平臺(tái)的智能系統(tǒng)一體化等項(xiàng)目。協(xié)同歐洲投資銀行一起，歐盟委員會(huì)已經(jīng)推出了歐洲綠色汽車計(jì)劃，這50億歐元將部分地投入在電池和電動(dòng)車的研究、開(kāi)發(fā)、制造、以及示范項(xiàng)目上。
這一陣活動(dòng)似乎表明，電動(dòng)汽車最終將是一個(gè)重大突破。但是這次，它會(huì)在這里停滯不前嗎？歷史告訴我們要謹(jǐn)慎。電動(dòng)汽車早在1883年就開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)了——比內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車早52年。然而，1913年以后，內(nèi)燃機(jī)的大規(guī)模商業(yè)化導(dǎo)致電動(dòng)汽車快速下降。在過(guò)去幾十年里，嘗試重新引入電動(dòng)汽車的努力大部分未獲成功，它們?nèi)匀淮硪粋€(gè)非常小的利基市場(chǎng)。
電動(dòng)汽車未來(lái)發(fā)展的重大問(wèn)題之一是電池性能的改良速度。釵電池嚴(yán)重限制了電動(dòng)汽車的性能，因?yàn)橄啾葍?nèi)燃機(jī)汽車，釵電池為整個(gè)汽車平添了220公斤的重量。當(dāng)今的大多數(shù)客用汽車都在城市行駛，因此在通常情況下路途較短、速度較慢，所以這一問(wèn)題似乎并不像歐美等其他市場(chǎng)那樣嚴(yán)峻，因?yàn)槟抢锏钠骄旭偮烦谈L(zhǎng)，最高速度也更快。電動(dòng)汽車技術(shù)的持續(xù)研發(fā)正大幅改善著汽車的性能。美國(guó)A123Systems公司，世界最大的高能釵電池生產(chǎn)商之一，宣布汽車每次充電后，電池能夠驅(qū)動(dòng)汽車行駛200公里。東芝公司最近也宣布正式推出超級(jí)充電電池，而這種電池在j分鐘以內(nèi)就可以充滿90%的電量。
但是今天，未來(lái)看起來(lái)更加光明：電池技術(shù)已經(jīng)取得許多重大進(jìn)展，電動(dòng)車有望在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)大規(guī)模重新進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)?；谶m度增長(zhǎng)情況的假定，到2050年，電動(dòng)車會(huì)在新銷售額中占有超過(guò)60％的比例，并構(gòu)成25％的全球汽車車隊(duì)。不過(guò)，由于現(xiàn)在還有一些相關(guān)技術(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)和未來(lái)消費(fèi)者行為的不確定性，對(duì)未來(lái)部署規(guī)模的估計(jì)會(huì)有很大變動(dòng)。
電動(dòng)汽車的一大好處是減少排放到大氣中的溫室氣體。當(dāng)我們計(jì)算可替代能源動(dòng)力汽車技術(shù)的碳減排總量時(shí)，不僅計(jì)算機(jī)車排放的CO2總量，而且還包括機(jī)車在整個(gè)生命周期的排放數(shù)量，從發(fā)電直到燃料運(yùn)輸時(shí)產(chǎn)生的CO2排放都包含在其中。
2008年8月，麥肯錫全球團(tuán)隊(duì)研究了北美、歐洲、中國(guó)和印度的乘用車行業(yè)。團(tuán)隊(duì)基于現(xiàn)有技術(shù)和商業(yè)運(yùn)行可行性選取并研究了四種可替代能源汽車技術(shù)。他們通過(guò)與傳統(tǒng)的消耗汽油或柴油的內(nèi)燃機(jī)(ICE)汽車進(jìn)行對(duì)比。
改良型汽油和朱油動(dòng)力汽車:傳統(tǒng)內(nèi)燃機(jī)(ycE)汽車采用了減排技術(shù)，如采用有助于引擎高效燃油的可變換閥門控制、通過(guò)降低摩擦節(jié)約燃料的低滾動(dòng)阻力輪胎。改良型內(nèi)燃機(jī)動(dòng)力汽車在其生命周期中可能減少51%的碳排放量。
全混合動(dòng)力汽車:全混合動(dòng)力汽車主要消耗汽油，而在加速時(shí)以電池驅(qū)動(dòng)。汽車的動(dòng)力來(lái)源主要依靠?jī)?nèi)燃機(jī)。再加上上述內(nèi)燃機(jī)改進(jìn)技術(shù)，全混合動(dòng)力汽車在其生命周期中可能減少50%的碳排放量。
壓縮天然氣(CNG)汽車:壓縮天然氣汽車一般被認(rèn)為是采用清潔能源的車型，但在其生命周期中的碳減排空間完全取決于天然氣來(lái)源——天然氣運(yùn)輸距離越遠(yuǎn)，該車型“從油井到油箱”的排放量就越。假設(shè)天然氣來(lái)自當(dāng)?shù)貧庠?，壓縮天然氣汽車在生命源大周期中碳減排量和混合動(dòng)力汽車接近，為55%。
電動(dòng)汽豐:電動(dòng)汽車包括插電混合動(dòng)力汽車(PHEV)和電池電動(dòng)汽車(BEV)。與全混合動(dòng)力汽車相比，插電混合動(dòng)力汽車裝有更大的電池，因此使得汽車可以在沒(méi)有內(nèi)燃機(jī)的輔助下所行路程更遠(yuǎn)。這種汽車可以用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)插座充電，只需內(nèi)燃機(jī)提供少許動(dòng)力。電池電動(dòng)汽車一直要電池提供動(dòng)力，而不需要內(nèi)燃機(jī)機(jī)制的幫助?？蓱]到中國(guó)依賴謀電站發(fā)電，當(dāng)今的電動(dòng)汽車依靠現(xiàn)在的內(nèi)燃機(jī)技術(shù)只能夠有減少19%碳排放量的空間;然而，如果在電力供應(yīng)方面使能源構(gòu)成更加多元化，并向可替代能源轉(zhuǎn)變的話，碳減排量會(huì)增加至49%。
雖然電動(dòng)汽車具有零尾氣排放的特點(diǎn)，但是，在電力生產(chǎn)過(guò)程中會(huì)有排放。比如說(shuō)，倘若沒(méi)有采用新動(dòng)力汽車技術(shù)的協(xié)同行動(dòng)，中國(guó)乘用車的CO2排放水平到2030年可達(dá)12億噸。然而，我們的研究顯示，中國(guó)可以通過(guò)采用各種可替代動(dòng)力汽車技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)高達(dá)45%的乘用車減排量。對(duì)比其他的動(dòng)力汽車技術(shù)，電動(dòng)汽車的減排空間似乎較小。全混合動(dòng)力汽車的減排量可達(dá)56%，但是電動(dòng)汽車只有19%的減排空間。原因是中國(guó)仍然依靠火電站提供高達(dá)85%的電量供應(yīng)。但是，如果可替代能源到2030年占中國(guó)電力供應(yīng)的50%，那么電動(dòng)汽車的碳減排空間則可提高至49%，即大體上與其他技術(shù)的減排水平相當(dāng)。原因是，中國(guó)仍然依靠火電站提供高達(dá)85%的電量供應(yīng)。
由此也可以衍生出電動(dòng)汽車的一個(gè)另一個(gè)好處是將城市中有害的空氣污染“位移”到農(nóng)村地區(qū)，那里的人口暴露較低；噪音水平也較低，特別是在城市的駕駛條件。
電動(dòng)車的另一個(gè)主要優(yōu)勢(shì)是能源效率。擁有60%—80%的“油箱到車輪”效率，使得電動(dòng)車優(yōu)于傳統(tǒng)汽車四倍?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，電動(dòng)車在低速和頻繁換擋的情況下顯示出了強(qiáng)大的節(jié)能功效，這也是城市成為主要目標(biāo)市場(chǎng)的另一個(gè)原因。
電動(dòng)汽車也將為軟件開(kāi)發(fā)商帶來(lái)機(jī)遇。電力機(jī)車需要安裝提示司機(jī)有關(guān)汽車重要數(shù)據(jù)狀態(tài)的電子界面，包括燃料電池的使用情況、GPS導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)的每秒更新等等。由風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資支持的新興公司Better Place正在開(kāi)發(fā)一種名為AutOS的綜合信息管理系統(tǒng)，該系統(tǒng)可以告知司機(jī)最近的電池充電站的位置以及其他信息。雖然燃料電池和其他相關(guān)技術(shù)在大幅降低CO2排放量方面前景廣闊，但是其商業(yè)應(yīng)用仍尚需時(shí)日。然而，投資電動(dòng)汽車并不意味著汽車制造商和供應(yīng)商應(yīng)該停止對(duì)其他技術(shù)的研究。反而，他們應(yīng)該保持一種平衡的技術(shù)組合，即將電動(dòng)汽車作為近期的解決方案，而將其他技術(shù)，如燃料電池等，視為長(zhǎng)期的解決方案。因?yàn)橐坏┥鲜黾夹g(shù)具有商業(yè)可行性時(shí)，將會(huì)帶來(lái)可觀的回報(bào)。
感謝其能源效率，如果發(fā)電在未來(lái)將更加環(huán)保，電動(dòng)汽車將有助于溫室氣體的大幅減少。鑒于對(duì)氣候變化進(jìn)行的考慮，這可能被證明是一個(gè)重要因素。事實(shí)上，交通對(duì)歐盟的溫室氣體排放量需要負(fù)五分之一以上的責(zé)任，并且它是排放量不斷增長(zhǎng)的唯一部門。雖然改善內(nèi)燃機(jī)仍有可能減少每公里駕駛的排放量，但要使溫室氣體排放減少50％以上，就需要新的技術(shù)解決方案，如電動(dòng)車。
相對(duì)于傳統(tǒng)的汽車，并在目前歐洲平均電力供應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)上，電動(dòng)汽車有50％的更少的排放量。如果隨著更多的綠色和可再生能源的使用，發(fā)電的碳強(qiáng)度持續(xù)下降，則可以進(jìn)一步獲益。
電動(dòng)車似乎終于到了發(fā)生重大突破的臨界點(diǎn)，尤其是它能夠在城市中提供巨大的環(huán)境效益。創(chuàng)新的商業(yè)模式即將到來(lái)，這必將提升消費(fèi)者的接受度。然而，綠色電力供應(yīng)仍存在一些障礙：昂貴的電池技術(shù)，有限的駕駛范圍，和對(duì)于電動(dòng)充電設(shè)施密集網(wǎng)絡(luò)的需要。為了克服這些障礙，創(chuàng)新的商業(yè)模式正在發(fā)展，以便助于轉(zhuǎn)變汽車運(yùn)輸。
附 錄B
The Electric Car-a Green Transport Revolution In The Making?
As the word’s continuing energy crisis, and war and oil consumption and energy car full with the amount of increase, decrease energy day by day, one day it will disappear without a trace. Oil is not living resources. Oil consumption in the net must be to find a substitute before. With the development of technology and social progress, the invention of the electric vehicles will be effective help ease the financial difficulty. Electric cars will become the ideal means of transport.
Faced with high energy costs and rising consumer and government concern over the fate of the environment, the word’s automakers are stepping up investment in the development of alternative power train technologies that promise to substantially cut fuel consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Much attention to-date has focused on advances by Japanese and American automakers in the development of hybrid and battery electric vehicles. Toyota’s, Pries has emerged as the best-selling hybrid car in the world. Tesla Motors, a US-based start-up, has launched its first battery electric vehicle, the Tesla Roadster. By the end of 2010, GM plans to launch its much-touted Volt hybrid, while Chrysler has recently announced similar plans.
The Chinese government also has the National High Technology Research and Development program (863 Program) specifically listed, including hydride vehicles, including electric cars of major projects. At present, China’s independent innovation of new energy vehicles in the components and system integration focusing on the principles established in hybrid electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles as a “three vertical”.
Several European counters as well as U.S, china and others, have recently announced bold plans for the introduction of electric vehicles. These include fiscal incentives, funding research on batteries and electric vehicles and plans for the deployment of a charging infrastructure. Major cities such as London and paris have announced electric car-sharing systems, while public administrations and companies using large captive fleets are purchasing electric vehicles.
At the same time, utilities, car manufacturers, battery producers and academics are joining forces on initiatives such as the EURELECTRIC Task Force on Electro Vehicles and Epos, the European Technology platform on Smart Systems integration. Together with the European investment Bank the European Commission has launched the European green cars initiative, with EUR 5 billion partly dedicated to the research, development and manufacturing of batteries and electric cars and to demonstration projects.
This flurry of activity seems to indicate that the electric car is heading for a major breakthrough at last-but is it here to stay this time? History calls for caution, the production of electric vehicles. However, after 1913the mass commercialization of the combustion engine led to a rapid decline in electric vehicles. Attempts to reintroduce electric vehicles in past decades have for the most part been unsuccessful and they still represent a very small, niche market.
One of the biggest issues facing the potential take-up of electric vehicles is the rate of improvement in the performance of electric vehicle batteries. The biggest drag on electric vehicle performance comes from the lithium-ion battery, which can add another 220 kilograms to the total weight of a car, versus an ICE-powered vehicle. Since most passenger vehicles in china today are driven in urban areas, where shorter distances and slower speeds are the norm, this may not prove to be as vexing an issue as it is n other markets such as the US or Europe, where the average driving distance and top speed are considerably longer and higher. Continued research and development into electric battery technology is generating promising improvements in performance. US-based A234Systems, one of the world’s largest producers of high-power lithium-ion batteries.
Announced a battery capable of powering a car for 200 kilometers between charges. Toshiba recently announced the commercial launch of its Super Charge battery, which can be charged to 90 percent capacity in less than five minutes.
Yet today the future looks brighter. A great deal of progress has been made in battery technology and electric vehicles are expected to re-enter the market on a large scale within the nest couple of years. Based on a moderate growth scenario, by 3050, electric vehicles could represent more than 60% of new sales and constitute up to 25% of the global car fleet. However, estimates of the extent of future deployment vary greatly, as there is still some uncertainty in relation to the development of technology and future consumer behavior.
One of the primer benefits of electric vehicles is, of course, the reduction of Green house gases emitted into the atmosphere. Our calculation of the total carbon abatement potential of alternative power train technologies counted not only the CO2 emissions that vehicles produce, but also emissions produced through out their entire life-cycle, from the CO2 emitted during the generation of electric power through to the transportation of fuel.
Over a period of 8 months in 2008, a global McKinsey team studied the passenger vehicle industries in North America, Europe, China, and India. The team examined four power train technology alternatives, chosen on the basis of existing technologies and their near-term commercial feasibility. They contrasted them to conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles that run on gasoline or diesel.
Full hybrid vehicles: Running primarily on gasoline, full hybrids are powered by a battery during acceleration of the vehicle, but draw most of their power from an internal combustion engine. Full hybrids, equipped with ICE improvement technologies mentioned above, have a life-cycle carbon abatement potential of 56 percent.
Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles: CNG vehicles are normally perceived to be a source of clean energy, but their life cycle carbon abatement potential depends wholly on the source of the gas一the greater the distance the gas needs to be transported, the higher this power train's "well-to-tank" emissions. CNG cars rank close to hybrids in their life-cycle carbon abatement potential at 55 percent, assuming the gas comes from local sources.
Electric vehicles: Electric vehicles include plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Compared with full hybrids, plug-in hybrid vehicles contain a much bigger battery that can power the vehicle for a longer distance without the aid of an internal combustion engine, can be recharged by plugging them into standard electric sockets, and derive a smaller proportion of their propulsion from the internal combustion engine. Can be recharged by plugging them into standard electric sockets, and derive a smaller proportion of their propulsion from the internal combustion engine. Battery electric vehicles run solely on battery power without the aid of any internal combustion mechanism. Given reliance on coal-fired plants for electricity.
electric vehicles today only have a 19 percent carbon abatement potential over current internal combustion engine technologies; however, this can be increased to as much as 49 percent if diversifies its energy mix towards alternative energy sources for its supply of electric power.
Electric vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions, but there are, of course, emissions involved in the production of electricity. As an example, with no concerted action to adopt new power train technologies, the level ofCO2 emissions from passenger cars in China could reach nearly 1.2 billion tons in 2030. However, our research showed that by adopting a mix of various alternative power train technologies, China could cut emissions from passenger vehicles by up to 45 percent. Relative to other power train technologies, electric vehicles demonstrate a some what weaker carbon abatement potential. While full hybrid cars have an abatement potential of 56 percent, electric vehicles' potential stands at 19 percent. This can be explained by the fact that China still relies on coal-fired plants for as much as 85 percent of its electricity supply. This can be explained by the fact that China still relies on coal-fired plants for as much as 85 percent of its electricity supply.
It also can blossom into another electric car benefits of electric vehicles is the “displacement “of harmful air pollutants from urban to rural areas, where population exposure is lower. Noise levels are also lower, particularly in urban driving conditions.
Another major advantage of electric vehicles is their energy efficiency. With a tank-to-wheel efficiency in the range of 60 to 80%, they outperform conventional cars four-fold. Generally, electric vehicles show greatest energy savings at low speeds and in situations involving frequently-changing driving dynamics, which is another reason why cities are a prime target market.
Electric vehicles will also create opportunities for software developers. Electric vehicles require an electronic interface that informs the driver of the status of the car's vital statistics, from fuel and battery usage, to split-second updates in GPS navigation systems. Venture-backed start-up Better Place is developing a comprehensive information management system it calls AutOS. That will, among other things, inform the driver of the nearest battery-charging stations.
While other technologies such as fuel cells hold great promise in reducing CO2 emissions, its commercial application remains years away. Investing in electric vehicles, however, does not mean Chinese OEMs and suppliers should stop their research into other technologies. Rather, they should maintain a balanced technology portfolio, with electric vehicles being a near-term solution, while viewing other technologies such as fuel cells as a potential long-term solution that could yield returns once the technology becomes commercially viable.
Thanks to their energy efficiency, and assuming that electricity generation will be even greener in the future, electric vehicles could contribute to a considerable reduction in greenhouse gases. Given the ongoing debate on climate change, this could prove to be an important factor. Indeed, transport is responsible for more than a fifth of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions and it is the only sector with growing emissions. While the improvement of internal combustion engines still offers considerable potential for reducing emissions per kilometer driven, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over and above 50 % will require new technological solutions, such as the electric vehicle.
Compared to conventional vehicles, and based on the current average European electricity supply, electric vehicles have 50% less emissions. Further benefits can be achieved if the carbon intensity of power generation continues to decrease with further greener and renewable energy sources.
The electric car finally seems to be on the verge of breaking through, offering significant environmental benefits, especially in urban areas. There are, however, still some obstacles related to green electricity supply, the as yet expensive battery technology, the limited driving range and the need for a dense network of electric charging facilities. To overcome these obstacles, innovative business models are being developed to help transform automotive transport.